Monthly Economic Outlook – September 2009

Forecasts for economic growth during the second half of this year and 2010 have been steadily ratcheted up as most of the monthly economic indicators have come in better than expected. We have raised our own estimate modestly. We now see real GDP rising at a 3.7 percent annual rate,…

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

The leading economic index increased 0.3 percent in October and has risen for the past seven months. This implies modest growth will continue into next year. Yet, two elements of the gain don’t quite look like the usual recovery. One, the pace of the improvement fell sharply from the one…

Weekly Market Commentary

Stock indices should drift through to year-end, but not collapse. FX will continue to consolidate, as should most commodities, with a tendency for the Yen to strengthen slightly and for the US dollar to weaken medium term. Longer-dated Treasury yields will move lower as investors realise that ultra-low official target…

Trichet Tempers European Rate Rally

Apart from giving the euro a slap in the face Jean Claude Trichet’s remarks about wrapping up the cheap loans awarded to the European banking system a year ago tempered the recent rally in European interest rate futures this morning. One has to be careful where to go with the…

Bernanke Sees Headwinds for US Recovery

EUR-USD was over 1.49 for most of the week, despite the fact that the majority of US indicators turned out weaker than expected, which, according to the pattern of the last few weeks, should in fact have had a dampening impact. In addition, Fed president Ben Bernanke revealed that he…