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Monthly Economic Outlook – September 2009

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Forecasts for economic growth during the second half of this year and 2010 have been steadily ratcheted up as most of the monthly economic indicators have come in better than expected. We have raised our own estimate modestly. We now see real GDP rising at a 3.7 percent annual rate,…

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November 22nd, 2009 at 4:30 am

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

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The leading economic index increased 0.3 percent in October and has risen for the past seven months. This implies modest growth will continue into next year. Yet, two elements of the gain don’t quite look like the usual recovery. One, the pace of the improvement fell sharply from the one…

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November 22nd, 2009 at 4:30 am

The Weekly Bottom Line

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The fourth quarter has gotten off to a slow start for the economy. Industrial production for October fell by 0.1% from September while housing starts fell by 10.6% over the same period. Given the strong growth in the industrial sector in the third quarter, the level of production in October…

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November 22nd, 2009 at 4:30 am

European Markets Drop On ECB Withdrawal

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European Trade: European shares moved lower in trade on Friday trade, following the Asian equity market that closed in the red. S&P futures moved side-ways throughout the overnight trading hours, but dropped eight points as the news that the ECB will withdraw their cash liquidity from the market over the…

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November 22nd, 2009 at 4:30 am

Weekly Focus: Squaring Positions

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At 0.69% the 2-year US bond yield is only 5bp from the low point during the crisis reached a year ago. 3-Month t-bill rates are again trading around 0%. Mainly two factors are behind this development. First of all, investors and banks are most likely reducing risk towards year-end putting…

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November 22nd, 2009 at 4:30 am