Global Markets: The Great Dissipation – One Year on from Lehman

One year has passed since Lehman Brothers folded, and the global economy has begun to recover. The decision by policy makers to met-out discretionary punishment to some financial firms and not others transformed a financial crisis into a global run on the bank, raising the cost of stabilizing both the…

USD Gains as Stocks Remain Weak

The USD continued to rally into the weekend supported by deleveraging as investors are reducing risk exposure in reaction to a drop in equity and commodity markets. Weaker than expected earnings at Dell, coupled with a statement from ECB President Trichet that it’s too early to tell if the financial…

Afternoon Forex Overview

The dollar held on to its gains against the euro and other higher-yielding currencies Friday morning as revived concerns about how fast the global economy will rebound prompted investors to shun riskier assets. Declines in stocks, gold and oil that began earlier in Asian and European trading continued early in…

Monthly Economic Outlook – September 2009

Forecasts for economic growth during the second half of this year and 2010 have been steadily ratcheted up as most of the monthly economic indicators have come in better than expected. We have raised our own estimate modestly. We now see real GDP rising at a 3.7 percent annual rate,…

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

The leading economic index increased 0.3 percent in October and has risen for the past seven months. This implies modest growth will continue into next year. Yet, two elements of the gain don’t quite look like the usual recovery. One, the pace of the improvement fell sharply from the one…