Weekly Market Commentary

Stock indices should drift through to year-end, but not collapse. FX will continue to consolidate, as should most commodities, with a tendency for the Yen to strengthen slightly and for the US dollar to weaken medium term. Longer-dated Treasury yields will move lower as investors realise that ultra-low official target…

Euro Set for Further Losses

The main attention over the past few weeks has been on the US economy and dollar. There has been a tentative shift in sentiment over the past few days and there is a strong probability that the Euro-zone will be in greater focus over the next few weeks. The structural…

Weekly Technical Commentary

Subtle signs in a series of currencies that the trend to generalised US dollar weakness is about to step up a gear. Which currency will lead is unclear, though the Brazilian real and Australian dollar have so far, +33% this year. For dollar/yen we continue to favour a series of…

AUDUSD Finally Breaks the 8-month Old Trendline, Triggering a Stop Fest

The move in risk aversion in the European session provided a big boost to the greenback, and EURUSD is pounding on the local support just above 1.4800 as we write this, and AUDUSD has collapsed through support and triggered a stop-fest now that the multi-touch trendline stretching back to March…

Friday Ramble

I noticed a Reuter’s poll today. All the top banks were asked to provide their guess on just how undervalued the Chinese currency – yuan- was against the US dollar. The average guesstimate was about 20%. That’s about 20% lower than my guess would have been, but no matter. What…