The fourth quarter has gotten off to a slow start for the economy. Industrial production for October fell by 0.1% from September while housing starts fell by 10.6% over the same period. Given the strong growth in the industrial sector in the third quarter, the level of production in October…
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
The leading economic index increased 0.3 percent in October and has risen for the past seven months. This implies modest growth will continue into next year. Yet, two elements of the gain don’t quite look like the usual recovery. One, the pace of the improvement fell sharply from the one…
Monthly Economic Outlook – September 2009
Forecasts for economic growth during the second half of this year and 2010 have been steadily ratcheted up as most of the monthly economic indicators have come in better than expected. We have raised our own estimate modestly. We now see real GDP rising at a 3.7 percent annual rate,…
Weekly Market Commentary
Stock indices should drift through to year-end, but not collapse. FX will continue to consolidate, as should most commodities, with a tendency for the Yen to strengthen slightly and for the US dollar to weaken medium term. Longer-dated Treasury yields will move lower as investors realise that ultra-low official target…
Bernanke Sees Headwinds for US Recovery
EUR-USD was over 1.49 for most of the week, despite the fact that the majority of US indicators turned out weaker than expected, which, according to the pattern of the last few weeks, should in fact have had a dampening impact. In addition, Fed president Ben Bernanke revealed that he…